The Jags will be sporting a different offensive look when they take the field, as new coordinator Carl Smith has introduced a vertical passing attack to replace the west coast scheme employed by former offensive architect Bill Musgrave. Quarterback Byron Leftwich is expected to play the first quarter before yielding to backups David Garrard, Quinn Gray, and perhaps Nate Hybl.Miami, meanwhile, will be looking for a better outcome than the one it suffered against Chicago on Monday night. Quarterbacks A.J. Feeley and Gus Frerotte are fighting for the opening-day starting spot and continue the competition here. Defensively, the Dolphins allowed Bears to amass 376 yards through the air on Monday, and new head coach Nick Saban will be seeking a stronger effort out of his secondary. Gus Frerotte did a nice job with the second unit, and is thought to be on his way to winning the starting assignment. Here, he gets the start with the first unit and should have some success, even against the Jags’ tough “D”.
Having already played a game, Miami should benefit, especially after having their weaknesses exposed. "I'm never happy about not having success, OK, and not finishing the game," Saban said, his voice building with intensity. "We want to play 60 minutes in the game and we need to win the game in the fourth quarter, and I don't care who's out there playing.”
Week 1 road dogs with no wins facing opponents with no wins have beat the spread more than 67% of the time, as have Week 1 teams (not favored by 4+ points) coming off an early exhibition game and going up against foes playing their first game. These systems have won better than 2 of 3 over 65+ qualifying games in each case. also note that while Jacksonville has covered the spread only twice in their last 10 home practice games, the Dolphins are a solid 18-8 ATS as an underdog, including 14-7 ATS on the road, and a perfect 5-0 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points. Look for a motivated Miami team to come out strong and finish strong for the spread win here
The Jaguars' No.1 offense played until early in the second quarter in last year's exhibition opener at Miami but did not produce any points in four possessions. It should be a different story this time around with the more aggressive approach on offense. New OC Smith is a proponent of play action, something you will see a lot with his QBs in preseason. Smith said, "We're going to use the whole field this season." Miami has also opened up their passing game under the new schemes being employed by Saban, which should also help to push this game OVER the posted total.
Mia +3 Over 34 1 unit each
Baltimore usually comes to play every time out, including preseason; however, I like the nod to Atlanta here. Besides the momentum and advantage of having played and won an early exhibition games, the Falcons enjoy a big edge here with their QB rotation. Vick has said he feels far more comfortable entering his second season in offensive coordinator Greg Knapp's West Coast offense and Mora said the fluidity and familiarity in the way the first-team offense performed against the Colts Saturday was a good sign. Playing behind Michael Vick gives backup quarterback Matt Schaub few opportunities to contribute during the regular season, so the second-year veteran from Virginia has made the most of his chances in preseason. His showing against the Colts last week was no fluke. Last year Schaub led the NFL with 655 passing yards, 54 completions and six touchdowns in exhibition games. Meanwhile, Baltimore counters with a rotation of Kyle Boller, Anthony Wright, and rookie Derek Anderson. RB Jamal Lewis will not be in uniform for Baltimore and no he is not in jail.
Some numbers also give a reason to side with Atlanta here. They are 19-11-1 ATS as a favorite, including 8-2 ATS as a home fave of 3 or less. Off a SU win in preseason, they are a sparkling 8-1 ATS, and 9-3 ATS at home before another home game. Falcons’ favor. Home teams off a neutral site SU win are a solid 71%+ play, covering 35 of 49 qualifying games.There’s no question that Baltimore will give Atlanta a battle, and could very well play them even for a half. It’s in the second half, where the Falcons advantages should help them pull ahead for a SU & ATS victory.
Atl -2 1/2 unit
Having already played a game, Miami should benefit, especially after having their weaknesses exposed. "I'm never happy about not having success, OK, and not finishing the game," Saban said, his voice building with intensity. "We want to play 60 minutes in the game and we need to win the game in the fourth quarter, and I don't care who's out there playing.”
Week 1 road dogs with no wins facing opponents with no wins have beat the spread more than 67% of the time, as have Week 1 teams (not favored by 4+ points) coming off an early exhibition game and going up against foes playing their first game. These systems have won better than 2 of 3 over 65+ qualifying games in each case. also note that while Jacksonville has covered the spread only twice in their last 10 home practice games, the Dolphins are a solid 18-8 ATS as an underdog, including 14-7 ATS on the road, and a perfect 5-0 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points. Look for a motivated Miami team to come out strong and finish strong for the spread win here
The Jaguars' No.1 offense played until early in the second quarter in last year's exhibition opener at Miami but did not produce any points in four possessions. It should be a different story this time around with the more aggressive approach on offense. New OC Smith is a proponent of play action, something you will see a lot with his QBs in preseason. Smith said, "We're going to use the whole field this season." Miami has also opened up their passing game under the new schemes being employed by Saban, which should also help to push this game OVER the posted total.
Mia +3 Over 34 1 unit each
Baltimore usually comes to play every time out, including preseason; however, I like the nod to Atlanta here. Besides the momentum and advantage of having played and won an early exhibition games, the Falcons enjoy a big edge here with their QB rotation. Vick has said he feels far more comfortable entering his second season in offensive coordinator Greg Knapp's West Coast offense and Mora said the fluidity and familiarity in the way the first-team offense performed against the Colts Saturday was a good sign. Playing behind Michael Vick gives backup quarterback Matt Schaub few opportunities to contribute during the regular season, so the second-year veteran from Virginia has made the most of his chances in preseason. His showing against the Colts last week was no fluke. Last year Schaub led the NFL with 655 passing yards, 54 completions and six touchdowns in exhibition games. Meanwhile, Baltimore counters with a rotation of Kyle Boller, Anthony Wright, and rookie Derek Anderson. RB Jamal Lewis will not be in uniform for Baltimore and no he is not in jail.
Some numbers also give a reason to side with Atlanta here. They are 19-11-1 ATS as a favorite, including 8-2 ATS as a home fave of 3 or less. Off a SU win in preseason, they are a sparkling 8-1 ATS, and 9-3 ATS at home before another home game. Falcons’ favor. Home teams off a neutral site SU win are a solid 71%+ play, covering 35 of 49 qualifying games.There’s no question that Baltimore will give Atlanta a battle, and could very well play them even for a half. It’s in the second half, where the Falcons advantages should help them pull ahead for a SU & ATS victory.
Atl -2 1/2 unit
